The stunning victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential election will usher in changes which will affect the entire globe - Ireland very much included.
In economic terms, the incoming President's tough 'America First' policies will make it more difficult for US companies to benefit from favourable corporate taxation rates in the Republic of Ireland.
In the North, the only US companies which have opted to base significant operations here do so on the basis that their off-shoots will be cost-centres rather than profit-centres. In short, they have only one customer - the mother company - and are unconcerned at the higher corporation taxes under UK law.
But emboldened by his sweeping majority, expect President Trump to take a jaundiced view of American companies which move jobs from the US to foreign parts.
The green light for globalisation, turbo-charged under Democratic Presidents, ultimately led to the haemorrhaging of jobs from America and was one of the factors in the collapse of Kamala Harris' Presidential campaign.
Expect, therefore, US companies hoping to keep on President Trump's good side to 'near-shore' not just manufacturing jobs but tech jobs back to America.
At a time when the increasing use of AI is threatening tech support jobs globally, the next four years could therefore see a diminution of US investment across the island of Ireland.
The advantage of such a shift of course is that it would force the major economic agencies on the island — Invest NI and Enterprise Ireland — to make common cause in encouraging indigenous entrepreneurship. Better in a retrenched world to depend on our own genius than on the volatile decisions made in US boardrooms during a Trump Presidency.
Perhaps, more ominously for Irish politics is that this result will embolden those who wish to scapegoat migrants and minorities in order to win power. America saw a backlash against uncontrolled immigration into the US - indeed by the end of his tenure, President Biden had all but adopted the Republican approach to immigration on his Southern border. There is no reason to think a similar backlash, already evident across Europe, won't gain traction in Ireland.
Political leaders need to be ready to see off this lunge to the far-right by adopting wise and humane policies which lift up all communities and provide prosperity. The alternative is the nativism and polarisation which has gripped America.
Sadly, there is little prospect of this Trump Presidency Mark II ushering in a fairer world order. Whatever about Ukraine - where many observers believe a peace deal will be forced on Zelensky — expect more suffering and heartbreak for the Palestinian people as Israel's greatest ally is elevated to the most powerful political position on the planet.
'The Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave' has delivered its verdict on four years of President Biden's limping administration.
That vote must be respected.
That said, over the next four years, Irish political leaders do not have to buy in to the philosophy and policies of President Trump. Equally, however, they would be foolish in the extreme to ignore the lessons of this Trumpian triumph.
