DUP leader Gavin Robinson could be in for a major blow at the polls this week according to the betting, as BoyleSports makes Naomi Long an odds-on 8/15 favourite to win the hotly contested seat in East Belfast.
The Alliance Party leader caused political shockwaves in 2010 when she unseated then DUP leader Peter Robinson in the same constituency and a repeat is on the cards if the odds are anything to go by as Gavin Robinson is now rated the 11/8 underdog ahead of polling stations opening on Thursday.
The DUP is also in a close tussle for the Lagan Valley seat vacated by Jeffrey Donaldson, although Jonathan Buckley at 8/11 is a marginal favourite to retain the seat despite a strong challenge from Alliance Party candidate Sorcha Eastwood (even money).
An intriguing betting heat is taking place in South Antrim, where UUP candidate Robin Swann is 4/7 favourite to deliver an electoral blow to the DUP by ousting sitting MP Paul Girvan (5/4).
Sinn Féin is being backed to edge the traditionally marginal seat in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, where the former head of the Royal College of Nursing Pat Cullen is 4/9 favourite to see off Diana Armstrong (8/5) from the UUP.
A spokesperson from BoyleSports said: “It’s all to play for in a handful of constituencies and the odds are on a knife edge when it comes to the likes of Lagan Valley and East Belfast, so we could be in for some major headlines come Friday afternoon.”
Belfast East
8/15 Naomi Long (Alliance)
11/8 Gavin Robinson (DUP)
40/1 minimum the rest.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
4/9 Pat Cullen (Sinn Féin)
8/5 Diana Armstrong (UUP)
50/1 minimum the rest.
Lagan Valley
8/11 Jonathan Buckley (DUP)
EVS Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance)
22/1 minimum the rest.
North Down
EVS Alex Easton (IND)
EVS Stephen Farry (Alliance)
14/1 minimum the rest.
South Antrim
4/7 Robin Swann (UUP)
5/4 Paul Girvan (DUP)
22/1 minimum the rest.
* A betting explainer: If you bet Naomi Long at 8/15, the first number, 8, is your winnings; the second number, 15, your stake. Therefore, you would win £8 by staking £15 (you need to do the maths for smaller or larger stakes). As the stake is always returned on a winning bet, you will collect your £8 "winnings" along with your £15 stake, giving you a total "return" of £23.
If a winning amount is lower than the stake (as is the case with 8/15) that bet is "odds-on" and considered more likely to happen. A 1/1 bet is "even money" and considered too close to call by the bookies, and your money will be precisely doubled if your selection wins.
The more unlikely your selection is to win, the bigger the gap between the winnings (first number) and the stake (second number): 2/1, 5/1, 10/1 etc. The more likely your bet is to win, the bigger the gap between the stake (second number) and the winnings (first number): 8/15, 1/5, 1/10 etc.
