HOW do you suppose Micheál Martin and Simon Harris are feeling right now? Are they optimistic? Quietly pleased? Giddy with delight?

It must be difficult for them not to break into song because this is about as good as it gets. The Dublin government has a budget surplus of €8.3 billion. This, they’ll explain to anyone who’ll listen, was due to the careful handling of public finances by the Dublin government. But was it the political skills of Simon and Micheál?

Napoleon said he looked not for military skills in his generals, but luck. Maybe Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil just got lucky. But whatever the reason, the governing coalition have a lot of money which they are giving away to the public in the form of  tax cuts, increased public spending, welfare boosts such as a double payment of child benefit, subsidised childcare, energy credits, and tax relief to help meet many increased mortgage bills. In Fatshort, many families in the South will receive thousands of Euro over the next twelve months. Giveway budgets don’t come any more giveaway than that. 

But even as Simon and Micheál hug themselves and each other as they turn to the calendar and figure what would be the best date for them to call a general election, they have another not-too secret delight: Sinn Féin opposition has slumped in the opinion polls to 16 per cent. Not only that, but various controversies swirl around names like  Michael McMonagle,  Seán Mag Uidhir, Caolán McGinley and Niall Ó Donnghaile. No wonder Simon and Micheál are wondering why the God of Politics has blessed them with such unlucky opponents. That’s why, by the time you read this, the Dublin government  (of course it’s  in the interests of the nation, Virginia) may have called a general election.

But between now and the day the Southern electorate votes, Simon and Micheál would do well to remember the warning of British PM Harold McMillan: "Events, dear boy, events." Just as Sinn Féin have suddenly gone from high-flying to chimney-skimming in the popularity polls, there’s still some weeks for the coalition government to cock up. As PG Wodehouse warned that it’s when you think you’ve finally got things under control that Fate is lurking round the corner with a sockful of wet sand.

It is a fact widely known that electorates get sick looking at the same politicians for too long. That was part of what sealed the fate of the Tories in the last British election – the British people had got bone weary listening to them and looking at them. They may even get fed up with Simon and Micheál presenting  the Sinn Féin party as some kind of painted devil. 

It may take years for the southern electorate to get wise to the FG/FF trick, or it could happen very suddenly. The electorate might say to itself: Have these Shinners broken the law? And when they discover they haven’t, they may just turn on those who present Mary Lou as the Great Satan and demand to know why Simon and Micheál haven’t cured the chronic housing shortage; why they haven’t set in place a half-decent health service; why those who provide essential services to the state – nurses, Gardaí, those who keep shelves stocked, serve in supermarkets and small stores, clean and cook for the sick and elderly and collect refuse – get paid a pittance. 

And while it once was fashionable to deride those who spoke of a united Ireland, that’s no longer the case. Micheál may point to his Shared Island project and Simon may quote his predecessor’s urging that we must move from a united country as an aspiration and make it an ambition; but most in the Southern electorate know which party has always put Irish unity as a practical, possible goal and worked at achieving it. 

Don’t count dem chickens just yet, Simon and Micheál. The election period could uncover the smell of rotten eggs.