IT was called Project Fear. Way back before Scotland’s 2014 referendum there were all sorts of horror stories about what would happen if the country ever became independent.

Unionists painted a gloomy picture of a nation on its knees, internationally isolated and outside the EU, and unable to afford its welfare bills.

Nationalists now joke their opponents turned out to be right about the woes of the future, if not their causes. 

Yessers – supporters of independence – also had their own Project Fear, their own tall tales. They warned, wrongly as it turned out, that the NHS would be sold off to Americans if we stayed in the UK.  Most outlandishly, they claimed one Boris Johnson could be prime minister. Crazy, right?

“I cannot imagine a serious political party would elect Boris Johnson as leader,” laughed Blair McDougall, the chief executive of pro-UK campaign, Better Together, in a broadcast debate ahead of the indyref. The then London mayor, he said, was a “clown”. 

Well, that clown has become king. It is two years and half years since Mr Johnson entered No 10. A man, that is, who as editor of a right-wing magazine had published a poem describing Scottish people as a “verminous race”.  Thinking it was OK to print verse talking about Scots as worms was not, to put it lightly, going to endear Mr Johnson north of the border. 

As things stand, his premiership limps on after so many scandals that most of us cannot keep up with them, not least revelations of pandemic parties in No. 10 as most of us hunkered down. Labour, according to the polls, have overtaken the Tories in England. But what is happening in Scotland? Are appalled soft unionists switching to independence? Well, no, not yet.

In Scotland Mr Johnson has always been deeply unpopular. His approval rating has never been impressive. He is often described as a recruiting sergeant for Scottish nationalism. Indeed, his bumbling posho persona seemed especially designed to live up to all sorts of Scottish prejudices. 

But – so far – there is little sign of the needle of opinion moving towards independence. At least that was the take last month of Scotland’s legendary pollster, Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. The psephologist, almost as well known for his uncontrollable locks as his political insight, told BBC Scotland: “All I think we can say so far about the central question in Scotland, which is its constitutional status, is we've had one poll since the first round of ‘partygate’ that did not show any significant rise in support for independence.

“So, I don't think we should necessarily assume that if Boris Johnson were to survive, unpopular as he is, that that's necessarily going to make life difficult so far as support for No is concerned.”

This may, of course, be because contempt for Mr Johnson was already factored in to opinion on independence. Could some floating voters swing towards Yes if UK politics looks too weak to deal with a problem politician? We will have to wait and see. 

But what we do know already is that Mr Johnson’s continuing survival poses a serious threat to Scotland’s Conservatives. Douglas Ross, the leader of the party north of the border and of the opposition in Holyrood, has led calls for the prime minister to go. So has one of his predecessors, Ruth Davidson. Most Scottish Conservatives have lined up behind them. 

This has not gone down well with Johnson loyalists. Last month Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the house, declared Mr Ross to be a “lightweight”, a slight that irritated Scottish Conservatives.  

It is not just that the target of the insult – who as a professional football referee by trade has run the line at Old Firm games – is himself a substantive figure. Many felt this line was framed to demean devolved politics altogether. 

Mr Rees-Mogg later described the Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack, as “heavyweight”. It was not at all obvious why, even in right-wing unionist circles. Was it just because "Union” Jack had a job in the British government?

Mr Rees-Mogg, with his cut-class received pronunciation and aristocratic affectations, has had his run-ins with Scottish voters before. Two decades ago he stood, with little hope, in a working-class Westminster Scottish seat. Campaigning with his nanny, he did not get a great reception: he had to be rescued by his Labour opponent.

The disdain shown for Scottish Conservatives by some of their English colleagues has once again prompted some of them to think of independence. Not for their country, but for their party. Officially the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party – to give it its Sunday name – sets its own agenda north of the border. But there are those who think it should return to its roots as the plain Unionist Party.

These Scottish Tories had always voted with English ones at Westminster. Like Ulster Unionists before the early 1970s, they took the Conservative whip.

But they ran under their own name. Indeed – despite Scotland’s reputation for left-of-centre politics – they actually won elections. Unionists won 50% of the vote in 1955. Confusingly, some of its members stood as Liberal Unionists, but that was a famous and remarkable victory.

Unionists gave up their independence in 1964. Last month a recently retired MSP, Adam Tomkins, suggested this was a mistake. He said: "The time has long since come, that those of us who are on the centre-right of politics in Scotland need a credible and robust vehicle through which we can bring the policy ideas that we have got about economic recovery, about social policy, and indeed also about the constitution.” 

That vehicle, said Tomkins, a law professor, was not the Conservatives.

Tories put aside a similar proposal in 2011 when a politician called Murdo Fraser lost the leadership bid to Ms Davidson. The debate, however, remains live.

There are worries on the right of Scottish politics. Important local elections are to take place in May. They will fear that the unionist right will either stay away or cast their votes for left-of-centre pro-UK candidate from Mr McDougall’s Scottish Labour.  Distaste for the PM – the one he never thought could be elected – might end up helping the Better Together man. 

So is Boris Johnson a recruiting sergeant for independence? Yes, but of the Scottish Conservatives.