THIS could have been the year the British state came to an end. But it won’t be. A second independence referendum for Scotland – scheduled for October of 2023 – has been kyboshed by the UK’s most senior judges. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP were officially outraged by the Supreme Court’s November ruling, which said Scottish authorities had no right to hold a plebiscite on self-determination without permission from London. Nationalists have spent the last two months telling everybody this decision means Scotland’s union with England is no longer “voluntary”. Their opponents scoff at this characterisation of the UK, saying it is unfair. The first “indyref”, they point out, was just eight years ago. Yet nationalist rhetoric seems to be working. Before judges cancelled indyref2 most polls showed independence and union in something close to a dead heat. If anything, supporters of staying in the UK just shaded it. Now the dial of public opinion has shifted slightly but decisively in the other direction. Yes – a flurry of polls in November and December showed – has pulled ahead of No. If only just. I am, like a lot of reporters, a bit of a cynic. So I suspect it is just a bit easier to support independence when there is no prospect of an imminent vote. And I also think there will be some senior nationalists – who tend to be pretty pragmatic – who are relieved they will not have to fight a referendum in 2023. Why? Because they might have lost. And this is the thing with mainstream Scottish nationalists. They are not in a hurry: they think they have time on their side. The recent polls explain why. The British state, surveys demonstrate, is facing a demographic time-bomb. Young people tend to support independence. And old people – the union.
