ON the island of Britain in the coming weeks there will be elections that will impact our future.
Let’s take England first. If Labour do have the bad day out at the local elections that is being predicted we can see a government that already struggles for purpose and direction lose its mind altogether and lurch to whatever direction they think they need to in order to survive. If Reform win big, expect a 'wrap the union flag round me' assault on migrants and the poor. If the Greens come up the left, expect the same from Labour and Reform, because Labour in this guise have no idea how to do progressive politics and they have already identified Zac Polanski as a threat to their foundations.
Big Westminster majorities mean nothing in these times of fickle politics and zero principle, ask Boris Johnson. Absolutely anything is possible, ranging from a new Labour leader to a snap Westminster election to a u-turn on all budgetary decisions to date. It is all unknown, but one thing is certain – our interests and futures will not be considered for one second.
As for Wales – the unpredictable country that voted for Brexit against their own interests, that traditionally supported Labour – it looks like they too might pick a new complexion for their local Assembly. And any change looks like it might involve the progressive Greens and Plaid Cymru. Westminster will not be shaken to the core by this. They really don’t care about Wales unless it is mocking the accent, or watching Gavin and Stacey; but if Plaid do at least win ministerial places in a coalition in Cardiff, independence from Britain is on the agenda. And that does involve us.
For Scotland, the political roller coaster of the Scottish National Party appears to be on an up-slope. If they do win the majority that their stoic leader John Swinney is quietly confident of, Scottish independence is back on the agenda. Because Scottish people will have decided that despite the turbulence of the past few years one thing is constant – Westminster doesn’t care about them, think about them or plan for them. And it never will. Swinney is rightly framing this election as a mandate for an independence referendum.
And if both nations vote for change, well lads, that affects us in spades.
Commentary about next year’s Assembly elections here is currently framed by the day to day goings on up on the Hill. Did Caoimhe Archibald dare to plough her own furrow and go to innovative meetings in America? Did Phillip Brett match Timothy Gaston’s snarls and cause enough discomfort? That is all very well as it goes, but from June on if the upsets on the island of Britain that are speculated on materialise, the Assembly election will be about one thing and one thing only – our future constitutional arrangements. As if they weren’t already.
Ultimately the disconnect and heavy sighs about Strand One of the Good Friday Agreement caused by the deliberate bad faith of DUP unwilling partners, and the disregard of Westminster for the economic needs of this region, are solved by only one thing: A new arrangement. One that is designed to embrace us all and works for our collective future.
Even if nothing changes across the water that will remain constant.
