THE shape and direction of politics are going to be changed hugely by the results of this week’s Westminster election.
When the dust settles on Friday, some five too-close-to-call constituencies will have decided where the major parties go next, but for one party in particular the questions that will require to be asked concern not strategy and personnel, but its continued existence as a credible electoral force.
It is no exaggeration to say that this is the biggest test the DUP has faced in its history. It currently holds eight seats and is facing the real possibility of that number dropping to five, with East Belfast, Lagan Valley and South Antrim seen by observers and bookies alike as desperately close.
In recent weeks Alliance leader Naomi Long has overtaken DUP leader Gavin Robinson as favourite in East Belfast, with the UUP’s Robin Swann having overtaken outgoing DUP incumbent Paul Girvan as the man most likely to be making the South Antrim victory speech. Meanwhile the gap between Jonathan Buckley and Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley has shrunk to such a degree that senior party figures are tugging at their collars in the former loyal bastion.
A great day for the DUP would be standing still and retaining their eight seats. And when the best a party can hope for is inertia, you know things are looking grim. A disappointing day would be the loss of one seat and a bad day would be the loss of two. The loss of all three, however, could well mark the occasion when the DUP’s gradual decline as the main unionist party turned into freefall.
Shadow Secretary of State Hilary Benn has played his cards close to his chest in relation to a border poll. He has declined an invitation to spell out the criteria that will animate him, but the time is fast approaching when he will have to be more frank and forthright.
Three milestone-marking reversals loom for the largest party of unionism in this Westminser election: The loss of seats; the loss of its place as the largest party in the North; and – extraordinarily – having no Belfast representation at Westminster. All three of these things may happen, two may come to pass, but at least one is virtually certain.
And whether it is one or two or all three, a change will have been arrived at in the political landscape of the union that is so profound and irreversible that Mr Benn will be hard pushed to pretend that it can be business as usual for the UK.
The advance of pro-unity and progressive forces has been dogged and predictable, if not spectacular; but more importantly there has been a precipitous fall in the fortunes of a unionist bloc, which is a bloc only in terms of the constitutional question and as far from a cohesive unit as it is possible to be. Unionism is on the retreat in numerical terms and – perhaps more importantly – it has suffered a virtual collapse in morale.
The hope is that post-election a sufficiently strong message will have been sent to convince unionist leaders that change is a must.
