THE political temperature of loyalism has always been carefully controlled by what was once called Big House Unionism. Since partition (and indeed before) the tone of political announcements has been a sure and certain harbinger of what is to come on the streets.
That has shown no sign of changing in the 21st century, and in fact the past couple of weeks have shown the main unionist parties to be more adept than ever at pulling the strings.
The upswing in the number of sectarian hate incidents linked to the what we might now call the Protocol Protest has come about after a sustained period of loud and aggressive attacks on the Protocol by senior figures within unionism. We fully expect the usual suspects to sound off, and they did not disappoint, but the number and scope of the voices raised suggest strongly that this has been a planned and concerted effort to bring things to a head.
The sickening graffiti has been bad enough, but the news that both Mid and East Antrim Council and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) have withdrawn workers from ports over fears for their safety have upped the ante considerably.
The safety of staff is the primary consideration in any decision on whether to withdraw workers, but there’s a way in which this is normally done and this process has not followed a familiar pattern. There was no conversation with the police by either body before the hasty moves were made and so it cannot be said that the decision was taken on the advice of people in a position to know. Nor has it been suggested that loyalist paramilitaries are involved in any organised way, which makes it all the more intriguing that such a politically sensitive decision should have been made at a local authority and department level alone.
A poll at the weekend suggested that the DUP has paid a heavy political price for its disastrous stewardship of the unionist Brexit campaign – pre- and post-referendum – that has led us to where we are today. The party is in an embarrassing scrap with the surging Alliance Party for the title of second biggest party in the north, while it’s faced with the very real prospect – a nightmare for many – of a Sinn Féin First Minister. There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next elections in May 2022, and in the normal run of things the DUP could expect the fast-moving nature of politics here to give it multiple chances to redeem itself. But the big difficulty is that the Protocol, party’s biggest-ever political gaffe (including RHI), will be staring potential voters in the face every day for the next four years. And that’s not an easy mess to clear up.
That’s why the party has decided the Protocol must go – and never mind what is brought in to replace it. This is an existential crisis for the DUP and their language must be closely watched.
