Lewis Crocker v Paddy Donovan (SSE Arena, Saturday, Live on DAZN, approx 10pm)
Flip a coin; maybe make that best out of three. That’s what picking a winner of Saturday’s final eliminator for the IBF welterweight title is coming down to as Lewis Crocker and Paddy Donovan get set to battle it out in front of a sold-out SSE Arena.
Fights can be billed as 50-50s, but usually, there is some sort of clue where the advantage lies, but this time, it’s extremely difficult - and the turf accountants agree - in what it set to be an all-Irish classic between two unbeaten men hitting their prime.
That they have agreed to face each other at this stage with the risk attached is a testament to both as neither are seeking the easy touch or happy to play it safe. This is high risk, but with that comes high reward and the winner moves on to fight for the IBF title, currently in the possession of a top-10 pound-for-pound operator in Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis.
The American is rumoured to be moving up to light-middleweight after his next outing - a unification with WBA champ Eimantas Stanionis - and should he prevail, then it’s quite possible the winner of Saturday will be contesting a vacant title. However, the Lithuanian prevails in April and it is he who will be the king of the 147lb division.
But those permutations are for another day, as on Saturday, both Crocker and Donovan have their hands full and there is so much to consider ahead of battle.
South Belfast’s Crocker, a former standout amateur at Holy Trinity, comes into this fight with 20 wins in as many contests - 11 inside the distance - and is regarded at the puncher of the two. However, Limerick’s Donovan has stopped 11 of his 14 victims - evidence that he is no slouch in this department.
By the same token, it’s Donovan who has the reputation as the slick boxer with all of the skills in his locker, so surely he has the edge in this department? Well, when Crocker’s class an an amateur is considered, then downplay his skill-set at your peril.
So what will decide this? Perhaps it comes down to engine, temperament, ability to stand up to the power of the other and dealing with the pressure cooker environment as the SSE Arena is going to provide an extremely hostile environment with both expected to have their support there in numbers.
Crocker has the experience of the high-pressure ‘Battle of Belfast’ win over Tyrone McKenna, a fight in which he rose to the occasion and he will feel he is ready for the same again, but Donovan has had the weight of expectation on his shoulders from early in his career.
Although both ooze confidence they have the other’s number, there is also respect.
“Paddy is a great boxer – there’s no denying that,” Crocker accepts.
“He had a great amateur pedigree and he’s got a great coach in Andy Lee. I don’t really know Paddy, but we’re going to get to know each other well on March 1. I’m bringing it. I’m going to be a very hard man to beat.”
Their recent form includes ups and downs as although both have maintained their winning streak, there have been some below par moments with Donovan struggling at times against Williams Herrera at the Ulster Hall last January before ultimately stopping the Argentine, while Crocker came through a much tougher than expected test on the road against Conah Walker last time out.
Perhaps those assignments saw both take their eye off the ball a little, but there is little danger of that this week as they are both acutely aware that nothing short of their maximum will do.
Crocker overcame Conah Walker in a fight-of-the-year contender last summer
“A blind man could see that I wasn’t 100 per cent in my last fight and those mistakes aren’t going to be made in this fight,” Crocker insists.
“I think my experience is going to be key here. When you look at the stats of how many rounds I’ve done and how many rounds he’s done, it’s a big difference. This is a real jump up and it’s a real jump up on the stage as well.
“But I don’t know if this fight would have been made if my last fight hadn’t been like it was and maybe he took a bit of confidence from it. I’m going to be a different guy in this fight.
“Me, on my worst day, I beat Conah Walker on his best day, so if I don’t take anything good away from that, then, I don’t know.”
Donovan does seem to be taking encouragement from Crocker’s win over Walker, a fight he is convinced should have gone the other way.
His own previous outing saw him dismantle Lewis Ritson - albeit a shot-to-pieces version of the Geordie - so the Limerick man is making a significant step up this week.
But his performances so far have proven he is beyond the Ritsons of this world and taking the step up to headline in a high stakes fight is the natural move.
He is also dismissive of Crocker’s experience with the Belfast man having completed 119 professional rounds to his 63 - insisting the level of opposition his rival has faced has not always been of the greatest quality.
“All my fights have been at a high level since I turned professional, every one of them,” said the 26-year-old ‘Real Deal’.
“Crocker spent 17 fights in small town hall shows between Scotland and Belfast. He was never really on the big stage, only the last couple of fights he came to light but since the day I turned professional, I’ve had the limelight on me so I’m well used to it.
“I’m well used to the pressure, I’m well used to the big stage and I’m ready to put on a show.
“If the two of us are at our best, I’ll be a better fighter, I’ll win the fight. Crocker is a great fighter. He’s strong, he comes forward, but you can get that in any country or any gym.”
Paddy Donovan cut through Lewis Ritson last time out to improve to 14-0
Donovan is clever and adept at creating angles of attack, yet he has yet to be put under constant pressure from a big puncher who will likely seek to set a high pace and make it uncomfortable in an effort to wear him down.
The Limerick man is yet to go beyond nine rounds and with this eliminator scheduled for 12, his engine is likely to be tested to the maximum.
But he also possesses the power to perhaps deter Crocker’s advances and possess a very strong body attack in particular, which could be his key to victory.
“There will be times when Crocker is hurt in the fight,” Donovan predicts.
“We know that Lewis is very wild. He’s very dangerous, but you can get fighters like that. If I did that and I acted the same way in the ring that Lewis does, I’d punch the exact same way, but I’m more of a technician.
“I’ve got more skill, I’m well more disciplined, keeps their gameplan and I implement it right down to the tee so that’s what we’re going to have to do. Great game plan and do what the boss says, Andy Lee, and just expose Lewis Crocker on the night.”
Will his prediction come true and does Crocker have a Plan B for this fight, or will it be a case of stepping on the gas and pushing Donovan back?
By doing that, he will be in the line of fire as Donovan is excellent off the back foot and has superb timing, yet it is inevitable both will land with venom and the ability to stand up to that fire will be crucial.
It could be cagey early as despite the bravado, they will both have great respect for the other’s power and know that one slip could spell curtains. But this is a fight that will come to life and they will both have to bite down at times, their grit and sheer will to win tested like never before.
We simply don’t know which will have the edge in this, the most vital of factors, and it is a question we will only have answered when the bell rings. Now, where’s that coin?
