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Day One preview

1.20pm Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
THE crowds won’t be there to cheer the runners at the start of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but won’t stop Irish punters lumping on the favourite. Willie Mullins has a great strike-rate in the opener and Appreciate It will bid to give him a seventh victory in the Supreme.
Second to stable companion Ferny Hollow in last year’s Champion Bumper, Appreciate It looks the pick of the Irish novices. He might be a tad short in the betting for some and is trading around 7/4.
However, his form looks solid this season. Ballyadam is second in the betting and I see no reason why he’d reverse the form having been well beaten behind Appreciate It at Leopardstown last month.
Metier looks the pick of the home team, but the Tolworth Hurdle form is questionable.
I was keen on Dreal Deal for Armagh trainer Ronan McNally, but he will miss the Festival, while the horse he beat in the Moscow Flyer Hurdle, Ganapathi, will in action later this week.
At 11/2, Ballyadam is probably a fair each-way bet, but I’ll put him in a straight forecast with Appreciate It and hopefully the Irish can make a winning start to the Festival.
Selection: Appreciate It 5/4 (straight forecast with Ballyadam)
 
1.55pm Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase
THERE will be races throughout the week when I’ll gladly not have a bet and just sit and enjoy the spectacle. I’m tempted to do that with the Arkle as I think it will be a cracking race, but little appeals in terms of a betting proposition.
I think last year’s Supreme winner Shishkin is a worthy favourite and the most likely winner of the race.
He was very impressive at Kempton in December at a time when Nicky Henderson’s stable stars weren’t running to their best form.
Energumene won the Irish Arkle in fine fashion last month and would have been right in the mix, but a setback means he will miss the Festival.
It would be hard to ignore the stunning form of Dan Skelton this season and I’d imagine he’ll be among the winners this week.
Allmankind would need to improve on his jumping from most recent win at Warwick, but at around 15/2 he is a decent each-way alternative to Shishkin.
Selection: Shishkin 1/2           Each-way: Allmankind 5/1
 
2.30pm Ultima Handicap Chase
THE first big handicap puzzle of the week is usually the toughest one to work out. Favourites rarely prevail in this one and recent winners have tended to be returned at generous SPs without being huge outsiders.
Leading jockey Richard Johnston looks set to take the ride on Aye Right in the wake of Callum Bewley’s suspension and that is a huge positive for a horse who was second to Grand National favourite Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in November.
He was 14/1 when we went to print last week, but is now 11/2. Milan Native as also come in from 16/1 to 9/1 and is the each-way selection.
Last year’s Kim Muir winner has been a shade disappointing in his last two starts, although he has the course form in the bag and could run a big race ahead of a possible tilt at Aintree’s Grand National next month.
Each-way: Aye Right 11/2       Each-way: Milan Native 9/1
 
3.05pm Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
THE Champion Hurdle is the first championship race of the week and looks like one to savour although I think Honeysuckle is the one they all have to beat.
She is clearly the pick of the Irish runners and she has course form following her success in the Mares’ Hurdle last year.
Goshen and Epatante will have their backers, although the former needs to bounce back from a disappointing run in the Christmas Hurdle at Sandown.
The only thing that puts me off Goshen is his price – I believe there is no value left in his price at around 4/1. He will also be conceding 7lbs to the mares Honeysuckle and Epatante and that’s a huge ask for a five-year-old.
Honeysuckle looks to be as good as ever this season and I think she’ll win the Champion Hurdle and she is currently around 5/2 to do so.
For an each-way selection at much bigger odds, I’m intrigued by James du Berlais – a horse who has yet to run outside of France.
However, his new trainer, a certain Mr Mullins, plans to chuck him into next week’s Champion Hurdle. It seems a bit leftfield, but Mullins wouldn’t enter the horse without thinking he’d have some chance in the Champion Hurdle.
Selection: Honeysuckle 9/4    Each-way James du Berlais 20/1

3.50pm Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle
BY the time the fourth race of the day comes in, the bookies could be reeling from the first three favourites coming home in first place (hopefully).
Plenty of punters will fancy the chances of the first four doing the business and, in Concertista, they have another short-priced favourite.
Willie Mullins has dominated this race since its inception in 2008 – winning nine renewals. Even when Annie Power fell in 2015, he still won it with Glens Melody. Yet, I’m swayed towards the next horse in the betting – Roksana.
As I mentioned previously, Dan Skelton’s yard have been in great form this season and I think this is his best chance of a winner at the Festival.
Roksana won this race in 2019 and, in the absence of 2018 winner Benie Des Dieux and 2020 champion Honeysuckle, she can prevail.
Connections of Black Tears have opted to send her here rather than take up an engagement in tomorrow’s Coral Cup and she could run a big race at 12/1.
At even bigger odds, Minella Melody finished behind Concertista at Leopardstown at Christmas, but could sneak a place at a tasty 25/1.
Selection: Roksana 7/2           Each-way: Minella Melody 25/1
 
4.15pm Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
FOR several weeks Quilixios was the clear favourite for this race and I’d imagine he would have taken the world of beating.
However, connections have opted to tackle Friday’s Triumph Hurdle while another Irish contender Teahuppo is set to skip the Festival in favour of targets later in the Spring.
Saint Sam has been running behind the likes of Quilixios and Zanahiyr and ought to go close in a much weaker race, but he has plenty of weight to carry.
Nassalam is the top weight and the horse who finished behind him last time out, Houx Gris, could be well-weighted for this and is priced at 6/1.
The booking of Richard Johnston also looks a plus for Denis Hogan’s Zoffanien.
His form is closely matched with Druid’s Alter, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and I think he could run into a place at around 18/1.
Each-way: Houx Gris 6/1        Each-way: Zoffanien 18/1
 
4.50pm National Hunt Novices’ Chase
SEVERAL owners and trainers will have had big decisions to make this week regarding where they send their horses at the Festival.
Over the weekend, it was confirmed that Royale Pagaille will tackle Friday’s Gold Cup rather than the National Hunt Chase. I fancied the Venetia Williams-trained seven-year-old to win this and I doubt he’d have the class to win a Gold Cup, but time will tell.
His absence surely opens the door for Galvin here and I think 2/1 is still a fair price with Jack Kennedy on board.
His former stablemate Escaria Ten (4/1) could be his main threat and Gordon Elliott’s yard has won this four times in the past and he could be Denise Foster’s first Cheltenham winner since taking over Elliott’s licence.
At bigger odds, I think Remastered could get into the mix for David Pipe - another trainer who tends to do well at Cheltenham.
Selection: Galvin 2/1              Each-way: Remastered 8/1