THE 2022 Assembly Election in South Belfast was set to be one of the most contested of the election as the North’s most diverse constituency voted to elect five MLAs from 14 candidates.
The constituency is the only one in the North to have returned five MLAs from five different parties, but several additional parties and independents are standing in the constituency this time around.
Sinn Féin are running one candidate, outgoing Minister for Communities Deirdre Hargey, who will be hoping to maintain her seat which she has held since she was co-opted into the position when Máirtín Ó Muilleoir stepped aside from politics in January 2020. Deirdre has been popular in the area and is likely to retain her seat.
The DUP have suffered numerous setbacks in the constituency and have run a very quiet campaign. Newcomer to the area, Minister for Agriculture Edwin Poots, seeks to retain the seat previously held by the late Christopher Stalford. Sandy Row-based Christopher, a native of South Belfast, was popular with local constituents but Edwin Poots is seen as an outsider in the diverse constituency due to his fundamentalist religious beliefs and farming background. Nevertheless, the DUP is almost certain to hold its sole South Belfast seat – its two candidates in the 2017 poll had a quota-and-a-half between them.
The SDLP are fielding two candidates, current MLA Matthew O’Toole, and Elsie Trainor. Matthew was co-opted into the seat in January 2020 to replace Claire Hanna, who won a seat in Westminster in the December 2019 general election. He's seen as a near certainty. A tougher task faces Elsie, a native of County Laois but a resident of Belfast for over 20 years, who is running in an election for the first time. She was commended during her campaign for chasing off two men who were seeking to destroy her election posters.
Alliance are also running two candidates: sitting MLA Paula Bradshaw and current Lord Mayor of Belfast Kate Nicholl. Alliance have been pleased lately with recent polling which puts them neck and neck with the DUP. Alliance currently look to be the party in South Belfast most likely to pick up a seat. However, a health warning: in 2017, they had just 17.7 per cent of the total vote which translates as just over a quota between their two standard-bearers.
The Green Party will be fighting to retain their seat in South Belfast with sitting MLA and Green Party leader Clare Bailey contesting. The Greens currently have two MLAs in Stormont, Clare in South Belfast and Rachel Woods in North Down. The party has performed well in Stormont despite its low seat count, bringing about the passing of several important bills including the Climate Change Bill. It is unclear whether the party can retain their seat, with both Alliance and the SDLP having Ms Bailey's seat in their crosshairs.
People Before Profit are running political newcomer Sipho Sibanda, who's looking to take the party’s socialist message to the constituency. Sipho, who fled Zimbabwe in 2015 due to political violence there, will be the first black woman to contest an election in the North. She previously made a name for herself as a prominent activist in the Black Lives Matter movement.
The UUP are fielding Stephen McCarthy – the first UUP candidate to come from a working-class Catholic background. The UUP have attempted to distance themselves from the hardline positions adopted by the DUP and TUV and are appealing to a broader, more diverse unionist vote. Stephen is sure to snag up some votes from DUP voters disillusioned with the party’s role in Brexit and collapsing Stormont over the Protocol. However, it is unlikely to be enough to topple the DUP and earn a seat.
TUV candidate Andrew Girvin is running on a hardline anti-Protocol campaign, promising never to enter into powersharing with Sinn Féin. This will appeal to some in South Belfast, but the party faces an uphill struggle as in the 2017 election the party polled only 700 votes. This time out, it is unlikely they will do anything other than chip a few votes off Edwin Poots’ tally.
Aontú are running in the constituency for the first time with political neophyte Luke McCann who is seeking to capitalise on the nationalist anti-abortion vote. In this liberal bastion, the party has no chance of winning a seat but they may take some traditionally Catholic votes from Sinn Féin and the SDLP.
The Socialist Party are fielding trade union activist Neil Moore, who is active in Unite the Union. Neil is hoping his socialist platform will resonate with young people in South Belfast and may help him pick up a few more votes than expected.
Paddy Flynn will be standing in South Belfast for the Workers' Party. A recent split in the party between Dublin and Belfast factions has seen two groups simultaneously claim to be the Workers' Party, and the Dublin faction have denounced the current Belfast candidates. That uncertainty won't help Paddy's already slim-to-zero chances in South Belfast.
Elly Odhiambo is running as an Independent candidate in South Belfast. Originally from Kenya, Mr Odhiambo is currently a columnist with Belfast Media Group and is running on a platform to improve wages and transport in South Belfast.
Our overall prediction: As you were with one seat each for SF, SDLP, Alliance, DUP and Greens but the mother of all battles for that fifth seat.
