THE 2022 Assembly Election has been one of the most hotly contested West Belfast has seen in decades, with several parties vying for what could be a crucial final seat.
On Thursday, West Belfast voters will elect just five MLAs from a total of 17 candidates – the most of any constituency in the North. But with several parties making it a priority constituency, whole political fortunes could be won and lost here.
Sinn Féin, which has long-counted West Belfast as its stronghold, is hoping to return four candidates, two of whom are first-time runners in an Assembly Election. However, mainstream speculation suggests it could face a battle for a final seat as others look to capitalise.
People Before Profit will aim to return one MLA for the area, while the SDLP and DUP will both be in the hunt for a seat in the constituency, where all is still to play for.
Sinn Féin’s Órlaithí Flynn topped the poll in the Assembly Election in 2017 and enjoys a relatively high-profile position as the party’s mental health spokesperson. Though nominally allocated the Colin area by her party, Sinn Féin’s vote management system has seen her shifted to veteran republican Alex Maskey’s former patch in Greater Andersonstown.
Former Sinn Féin Lord Mayor Danny Baker, who has been allocated the Colin area by his party, is contesting an Assembly Election for a first time. He was co-opted to replace David Bell on Belfast City Council in 2017 and retained his Council seat after topping the poll in the Colin District in 2019. In December that year, Mr Baker replaced John Finucane as Mayor after the solicitor was elected MP for North Belfast.
Former hunger striker and long-standing republican activist Pat Sheehan will also look to retain his seat. Mr Sheehan first entered the Assembly in 2010, succeeding Gerry Adams as West Belfast MLA. He has held the seat ever since.
The retirement of former MLA Fra McCann, who was succeeded by Aisling Reilly, has seen Mr Sheehan take the reins in the Falls area. He was elected under quota in 2017, edging out the DUP by some 1,400 votes on the final count.
Aisling Reilly (centre foreground) with party colleagues in the Upper Springfield
As part of the Sinn Féin reshuffle, Aisling Reilly has been allocated Mr Sheehan's former patch in the Upper Springfield area. She previously held a position in Sinn Féin’s Stormont press office but is perhaps better known as a former Handball World Champion.
People Before Profit candidate Gerry Carroll was first elected as a councillor for the Black Mountain District in 2014. He was elected to Stormont in 2016 and retained his seat in the 2017 Assembly election, albeit with a significantly reduced vote. People Before Profit increased its number of West Belfast councillors from one to two in 2019 with Mr Carroll received over 6,000 votes in the Westminster election later that year. He will be hoping to retain his Assembly seat.
Gerry Carroll (foreground) with People Before Profit activists on the campaign trail
Paul Doherty contested both the Belfast City Council and Westminster elections for the SDLP in 2019 but was unsuccessful on both fronts. He has since shot to prominence as the head of a local food bank and is firmly in the running for a seat. If successful, he would help overturn the SDLP’s ailing fortunes in West Belfast. Party veteran Alex Attwood lost his Assembly seat in the 2017 election, while the 2019 Council election saw the SDLP’s West Belfast seats cut to one. In the latter contest, Mr Doherty narrowly lost the SDLP’s Black Mountain seat to Sinn Féin.
Paul Doherty (second from right)
DUP candidate Frank McCoubrey is councillor for the Court District of West Belfast and served as Lord Mayor of Belfast in the 2020/21 council term. In the 2017, he outpolled the SDLP, receiving over 4,500 votes in total. The DUP took a seat in West Belfast in 2003 when the constituency was a six-seater but has consistently snapped at the heels of the fifth placed runner ever since. The election has seen unsuccessful appeals for a single unionist candidate in West Belfast, which would have increased Mr McCoubrey’s chances. However, it is impossible to rule him out at this stage.
The DUP will hope to elect Frank McCoubrey
IRSP candidate Dan Murphy is making history as one of two candidates (the other is in Foyle) to stand for the party in an Assembly election. He is known for his role in the Beechmount Residents’ Collective but is a long-term member of the IRSP. The IRSP maintains that it has an outside shot at a seat, however, it is more likely that it will look to establish an electoral base as it aims for longer-term growth.
Thursday is a first electoral foray for Aontú candidate Gerard Herdman. The party was founded in 2019 after its leader, Peadar Tóibín, left Sinn Féin over its stance on abortion. Aontú stood two candidates in the Belfast City Council Election that year but received just over 1,600 votes after transfers. It received a similar number of votes in the 2019 Westminster Election but may expect a bump in its vote if it consolidates its position as a viable anti-abortion option.
The Alliance Party is standing a paper candidate in the form of party staffer Donnamarie Higgins, who received over 1,800 votes in the Westminster Election. Alliance held two council seats in West Belfast in the late 1980s and re-founded its West Belfast branch in 2019. However, the branch has been largely moribund with the last post on its Facebook profile dated July 2019. Polling suggests that the Alliance Party will dramatically increase its vote across the North, which may translate into an increase in West Belfast.
Green Party candidate Stevie Maginn received just over 200 votes in the Black Mountain District of West Belfast in the last local government election. Since then the Ballymurphy man has increased his profile due to lobbying efforts on a range of constituent and environmental issues.
The UUP’s Linsey Gibson is a relatively unknown quantity and is amongst those standing for a first time. However, the party is largely dwarfed in West Belfast by the DUP, which takes the majority of the so-called “unionist vote”.
The Workers’ Party has a long tradition of contesting the Assembly Election, but one in which it has always polled poorly. Patrick Crossan’s prospects will not be helped by the fact that the party is embroiled in messy split, which has seen a section of the party – including several former election candidates – denounce its platform. Both factions claim to be the legitimate heirs to the Workers’ Party name. It is unclear which faction its traditional vote will stick with.
The TUV is standing in West Belfast for a first time, with Jordan Doran selected as its candidate. His candidacy is expected to further split the “unionist vote” in an area where the DUP will depend on unity if it has a chance at a seat.
There are also three independents standing in West Belfast in the form of Gerard Burns, Declan Hill, and Tony Mallon.
